Measuring the Response Performance of U.S. States against COVID-19 Using an Integrated DEA, CART, and Logistic Regression Approach.

Yuan Xu,Yong Shin Park,Ju Dong Park

doi:10.3390/healthcare9030268

Abstract

Measuring the U.S.’s COVID-19 response performance is an extremely important challenge for health care policymakers. This study integrates Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with four different machine learning (ML) techniques to assess the efficiency and evaluate the U.S.’s COVID-19 response performance. First, DEA is applied to measure the efficiency of fifty U.S. states considering four inputs: number of tested, public funding, number of health care employees, number of hospital beds. Then, number of recovered from COVID-19 as a desirable output and number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as a undesirable output are considered. In the second stage, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Boosted Tree (BT), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR) were applied to predict the COVID-19 response performance based on fifteen environmental factors, which were classified into social distancing, health policy, and socioeconomic measures. The results showed that 23 states were efficient with an average efficiency score of 0.97. Furthermore, BT and RF models produced the best prediction results and CART performed better than LR. Lastly, urban, physical inactivity, number of tested per population, population density, and total hospital beds per population were the most influential factors on efficiency.

Highlights

IntroductionOn 11 February 2020, the United States was the in a series of countries to acknowledge community spread of a deadly virus which would eventually be named COVID-19
On 11 February 2020, the United States was the in a series of countries to acknowledge community spread of a deadly virus which would eventually be named COVID-19.The first COVID-19 patient was reported in the USA was in Washington State, and the coronavirus quickly spread throughout the entire state
The number of tested indicates the number of people tested for COVID-19, the number of confirmed indicates the number of COVID-19 positive cases, and the number of recovered indicates the patients recovered from COVID19 were collected from Worldometer [18], where provide real-time Coronavirus updates

Summary

Introduction

On 11 February 2020, the United States was the in a series of countries to acknowledge community spread of a deadly virus which would eventually be named COVID-19. The first COVID-19 patient was reported in the USA was in Washington State, and the coronavirus quickly spread throughout the entire state. COVID-19 has since resulted in a high number of deaths and the confirmed cases in the United States. People and governments in the USA have been challenged by COVID-19 and its consequences [1]. Social distancing and personal protective measures, including handwashing, wearing masks and gloves became the primary means of controlling the spread of COVID-19. There are many questions, such as “What will be the short-term and long-term consequences of COVID-19?”

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Results

Conclusion