Measuring the Pace of Technological Progress: Implications for Technological Forecasting

Abstract

The pace of technological progress is a construct that has evolved from technological change theories. Although the construct is well described, it lacks a valid objective measure. Measuring the pace of technological progress is believed to be important for both technology management and technology forecasting. A newly-developed objective measure of the pace of technological progress called the Technology Cycle Time indicator (TCT) is evaluated. The TCT indicator was used in two comparison analyses: (1) assessing the pace of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies; and (2) assessing the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor technology field. The TCT assessments were then analytically compared with specialist assessments found in the literature. The findings revealed that the TCT provided a valid assessment in each situation. The TCT has important implications for technology management and technology forecasting research.