Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to measure and forecast the macroeconomic performance in developed countries and Asian developing countries over the periods from 2013 to 2016 and 2017 to 2020. We used four macroeconomic indicators: government gross debt, real GDP growth, inflation rate, and unemployment rate to construct a scalar-valued summary measure of macroeconomic performance. These indicators are inspired by data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based models, which allow for unequal weighting of the different economic objectives. Based on the resampling models of DEA, we developed a research procedure for solving the macroeconomic performance problem by integrating gauge and forecast. Two variants of resampling models of DEA, i.e., past-present and past-present-future, were used to gauge and forecast the relative performance for each country in each year. Throughout the analysis, emphasis is placed on a comparison of the performances of 12 Asian developing countries with those of the five developed countries. Our empirical results reveal that Switzerland, Singapore, and the United States have achieved the most successful macroeconomic management in a time-series.
Highlights
The stability of a macroeconomic environment plays an important role for business and, has significance for the overall competitiveness of a country
This paper provides an evaluation of the performance of institutions responsible for the conduct of macroeconomic and environmental policies in some economies
Similar analyses have been conducted previously, they have been summarized into an evaluation of macroeconomic policies
Summary
The stability of a macroeconomic environment plays an important role for business and, has significance for the overall competitiveness of a country. It is certainly true that macroeconomic stability alone cannot increase the productivity of a nation, it is recognized that macroeconomic disarray harms the economy [1]. As we have seen over the past years in the European community, a government cannot provide services efficiently if it has to make high interest payments on its past debts. The helmsmen are assumed to provide varying amounts of macroeconomic services. Some macroeconomic services include a high level of real GDP per capita, a low rate of inflation, a high employment rate, a favorable trade balance, and so on. Macroeconomic performance is evaluated in terms of the ability of the helmsmen in each country to maximize provision of these fundamental macroeconomic services
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