Measuring the Impacts of Saffron Production Promotion Measures on Farmers’ Policy Acceptance Probability: A Randomized Conjoint Field Experiment in Herat Province, Afghanistan

Mohammad Wais Azimy,Yuichiro Yoshida,Keisuke Kawata,Ghulam Dastgir Khan

doi:10.3390/su12104026

Mohammad Wais Azimy, Yuichiro Yoshida + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104026

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Abstract

The government of Afghanistan promotes saffron production as a means to achieve economic development while reducing the widely spread opium cultivation in the country by providing necessary support to its farmers via saffron farmer service centers. This study investigates the causal effects of relevant attributes of potential saffron production promotion policies on the participation probabilities of saffron farmers. This study applies a randomized conjoint experiment to primary survey data of 298 farmers in Herat Province, which is perceived by the government as the center of saffron production in the country. The proposed hypothetical saffron production promotion policy consists of six attributes, namely, provision of machinery equipment, weather-based crop insurance, accessibility to long-term loans, location of saffron farmer service centers, provider of services, and annual payment. In the randomized conjoint experiment design, the respondents rank two alternative policies and policies against the status quo. The desirable policy comprises the machinery provision, long-term (up to 5 years) loan accessibility, an easily accessible service center, and policy implementation by international non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The estimated results reveal that saffron farmers are highly supportive of the proposed saffron promotion policy and that their willingness to pay is as high as 17% of their per capita income.

Highlights

In Afghanistan, more than 70 percent of the population, including most of the poor, reside in rural areas [1] and their livelihoods depend on agricultural activity [2,3]
This study aims to identify the design of saffron production promotion policy that best meets the needs of saffron farmers by measuring the farmers’ participation probabilities conditional on relevant aspects of potential policies by applying the randomized conjoint experiment proposed by Hainmueller et al [5] to a field experiment conducted in Herat Province, Afghanistan
The levels used as the baseline supposedly define the “worst-case scenario” and include not insured, shortest term loan, the provider being the government of Afghanistan, saffron production promotion service center (SPPSC) location being at the district farthest from the home district of the farmer, no machinery, and an annual payment of AFN 8000

Summary

Introduction

In Afghanistan, more than 70 percent of the population, including most of the poor, reside in rural areas [1] and their livelihoods depend on agricultural activity [2,3]. With the help of international organizations and NGOs, the government of Afghanistan is promoting the replacement of opium cultivation with saffron cultivation, surrounding the Pashtun Zarghun and Ghoriyan districts of Herat Province [4], where opium cultivation has essentially been the only type of agricultural production in which local farmers have engaged. The government of Afghanistan is aiming to increase saffron production by replacing opium production [4]; currently, there is an urgent need for an effective saffron production promotion policy. To achieve this goal, the government plans to provide financial and physical support to its farmers via saffron farmer service centers. According to a cost-benefit analysis by the Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees, the daily income for one jerib (0.2 hectares) of saffron cultivation is calculated to be $33 [8]

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