Measuring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Oil Prices Using Long Memory Models (November 1990 to December 2020)

Abstract

The problem of this study is seeking to answer the question whether the COVID-19 pandemic has a serious effect on the Saudi economy or not. The main objective of the study is to highlight the degree of the Saudi economic flexibility in response to external shocks by using more frequent method, which is long memory technique, that is suitable in analyzing and forecasting such phenomena. By examining the time series of oil prices in the study between November 1990 to December 2020, the series turned out to be unstable and after the first difference stabilized the time series of oil prices. The test of random long series tests turned out to follow random long memory and by comparing between several different models of ARMA models, hence the best model to represent the series was the ARFIMA model (AR=2,d=.469, MA=3) the model was estimated using Eviews10, and the estimated model ARFIMA Model (2, 0.469, 3) was used to predict oil prices in 2021 and the results of the forecast showed that oil prices haven't risen after the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating the strong impact of this pandemic on important strategic commodities, including oil prices. The results are consistent with the theoretical foundations and previous studies which were so reliable in the analysis, interpretation, and prediction of future oil prices. These results confirmed many studies in that it contributes the theoretical and practical debate of the pandemic, hence there is an enhance to future studies.