Measuring the Hedging Effectiveness of Index Futures Contracts: Do Dynamic Models Outperform Static Models? A Regime-Switching Approach

Abstract

This paper estimates linear and non-linear GARCH models to find optimal hedge ratios with futures contracts for some of the main European stock indexes. By introducing non-linearities through a regime-switching model, we can obtain more efficient hedge ratios and superior hedging performance in both in- and out-sample analysis compared with other methods (constant hedge ratios and linear GARCH). Moreover, the non-linear models also reflect different patterns followed by the dynamic relationship between the volatility of spot and futures returns during low and high volatility periods.