Measuring the Failure of Planning and Its Impact on Sustainable Travel in Dublin, Ireland

Simon Mcdonnell,Brian Caulfield

doi:10.3390/en4050727

Abstract

With the end of the recent housing boom in Dublin, Ireland, it is perhaps a good time to analyze how the commuting and development patterns have been impacted by this unprecedented level of housing construction in recent years. In this research, the authors focus specifically on the commuting patterns of those individuals living in the newest housing stock to see how these patterns adhere to the Irish government’s stated transportation and sustainability goals. Data from the 2006 Census of Ireland is used to explore the commuting patterns of individuals living in the four counties that make up Dublin who lived in the most recently constructed housing stock (built between 2001 and 2006, constituting almost one fifth of all housing units in Dublin). The results demonstrate that the latter populations were more likely to have longer commute times and to depart earlier to get to work. The findings also suggest that, despite ambitious government level goals, housing built during the property boom was more likely to be in low-density areas.

Highlights

After almost fifteen years of unprecedented economic growth, the Irish economy is experiencing one of the largest declines experienced by any developed country since World War II [1]
The focus of this paper will be on presenting a descriptive overview of commuting patterns as they relate to housing characteristics and the vintage of housing stock
City and County of Dublin and the modes of transport used to travel to work

Summary

Introduction

After almost fifteen years of unprecedented economic growth, the Irish economy is experiencing one of the largest declines experienced by any developed country since World War II [1].After an export-led boom that was fuelled by large increases in productivity per capita in the last years of the 20th century and the first years of this one, recent economic growth was largely driven by the construction of housing units. After almost fifteen years of unprecedented economic growth, the Irish economy is experiencing one of the largest declines experienced by any developed country since World War II [1]. Ireland experienced perhaps the largest expansion in housing supply of any economy in Europe. House prices increased by 65% and the amount of total mortgage debt almost trebled to €140B between 2002 and 2007, reflecting an increased demand and a doubling in the average loan size for new mortgage holders [3]. Already a low-density city by European standards [4], rapidly increasing house prices (along with other pressures such as road congestion and demand for oversubscribed services) incentivized developers and potential buyers to locate further from the traditional Central

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