Measuring public preferences for government spending under constraints: a conjoint-analytic approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT Governmental budgets and the priorities they reflect are the subjects of recurring political debate. Research on political representation commonly focuses on relative spending preferences, mostly in isolated domains that are unconstrained, and so provides only limited information about people’s preferences. Recent survey work considers the effects of asking about absolute spending levels in different substantive areas and in the face of revenue constraints. No studies do all three, though two studies get close and provide more fine-grained measures of preferences for spending change. We follow their lead but in a more general way, offering budget profiles that include increases as well as decreases in spending levels, embedded in a conjoint experiment in Sweden. Our results reveal that people appear to hold preferences on specific magnitudes of spending change, budgetary constraints matter, and the effects of increases and decreases in spending are not symmetrical. Although the implied preferences for spending are similar in direction to expressed relative preferences that are unconstrained, the levels of support across domains are different. The findings have implications for assessments of opinion representation, as inferences about the responsiveness of policy to preferences – and the congruence between them – differ depending on measurement of the latter.