Measuring Predictive Performance of User Models

Abstract

Evaluation of user modeling techniques is often based on the predictive accuracy of models. The quantification of predictive accuracy is done using performance metrics. We show that the choice of a performance metric is important and that even details of metric computation matter. We analyze in detail two commonly used metrics (AUC, RMSE) in the context of student modeling. We discuss different approaches to their computation (global, averaging across skill, averaging across students) and show that these methods have different properties. An analysis of recent research papers shows that the reported descriptions of metric computation are often insufficient. To make research conclusions valid and reproducible, researchers need to pay more attention to the choice of performance metrics and they need to describe more explicitly details of their computation.