Measuring Potential Ethnic Conflict in Southeast Asia

Abstract

This article offers insights into the identification of cases with a significant potential for ethnic conflict over a 2‐3 year time horizon through an examination of the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to the analysis of ethnic conflict potential in those cases. The goal is to suggest an analytical framework with applicability to the assessment of ethnic conflicts in Southeast Asia and beyond; thus, factors are identified that tend to precipitate or facilitate ethnic conflict in a world dominated by the norms of the modern state system.Twenty‐four ethnic minority groups are identified in Southeast Asia that havesome potential for conflict over the next 2‐3 years. The AHP methodology is then employed as a means to measure the potential for ethnic conflict among these twenty‐four groups. Potential is defined as the product of desire or motivation to act (i.e., the motivating factors) and the ability or capability to act (i.e., the enabling conditions), such that: POTENTIAL = (MOTIVATION) X (ABILITY). This approach to ethnic conflict analysis promotes consideration of the contextual factors that influence feelings of marginalization and capacity to effect change—a considerable step forward over approaches that are based on (inevitably problematic) generalizations about the shared attributes or historically rooted prejudices toward ethnic groups.