Abstract
The standard treatment of fill rate relies on stationary and serially independent demand over an infinite horizon. Even if demand is stationary, managers are held accountable for performance over a finite horizon. In a finite horizon, the fill rate is a random variable. Studying the distribution is relevant because a vendor may be subject to financial penalty if she fails to achieve her target fill rate over a specified finite period. It is known that for a zero lead time, base-stock model, the expected value of a finite-horizon fill rate exceeds the long-run fill rate. In this paper, I investigate the behavior of the distribution of the finite-horizon fill rate when a stationary base-stock policy is used to control inventory. For a vendor facing a finite-horizon, fill-rate-level contract and using a stationary stocking policy, I examine how the the length of the review horizon (i.e., monthly or quarterly), the demand distribution, and the cost of failing to meet the target affect the stocking decision.
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