Abstract
This study uses statistical and econometric tools to measure households’ vulnerability in pastoral rangelands of Kenya. It considered 27 socio-economic and biophysical indicators obtained from 302 households’ in-depth interviews to reflect climate vulnerability components: adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity. The theoretical framework used combines exposure and sensitivity to produce potential impact, which was then compared with adaptive capacity in order to generate an overall measure of vulnerability. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to develop weights for different indicators and produce a household vulnerability index (HVI) so as to classify households according to their level of vulnerability. In order to understand the determinants of vulnerability to climate-induced stresses, an ordered probit model was employed with predictor variables. The results show that 27% of households were highly vulnerable, 44% were moderately vulnerable and 29% of households were less vulnerable to climate-induced stresses. Factor estimates of the probit model further revealed that the main determinants of pastoral vulnerability are sex of household head, age of household head, number of dependents, marital status, social linkages, access to extension services and early warning information, complementary source of income, herd size and diversity, herd structure, herd mobility, distance to markets, employment status, coping strategies and access to credit. Therefore, policies that address these determinants of vulnerability with emphasis on women's empowerment, education and income diversifications are likely to enhance resilience of pastoral households.
Highlights
Vulnerability, commonly defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected, has been studied as a composite of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to hazards (Adger and Kelly 1999; Kelly and Adger 2000; McCarthy et al 2001; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2001; Adger 2006; Füssel 2007; Paavola 2008; Yuga et al 2010)
Micro-level vulnerability analysis is an essential prerequisite for local-level planning and prioritization of resilience planning and strategies especially among the natural resource-dependent communities at risk to projected climate variability and changes (Callaway 2004; Fraser et al 2011).While there is no superior scale of climate vulnerability analysis, recent studies by Yuga et al (2010) and Marshall et al (2014) have confirmed that micro-level analyses have hitherto largely been overlooked in favour of ecosystemscale studies of biophysical vulnerability
Understanding vulnerability to environmental change and extreme climate events is necessary for policy makers to develop mitigation and adaptation programmes for long-term resilience
Summary
Vulnerability, commonly defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected, has been studied as a composite of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to hazards (Adger and Kelly 1999; Kelly and Adger 2000; McCarthy et al 2001; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2001; Adger 2006; Füssel 2007; Paavola 2008; Yuga et al 2010). Micro-level vulnerability analysis is an essential prerequisite for local-level planning and prioritization of resilience planning and strategies especially among the natural resource-dependent communities at risk to projected climate variability and changes (Callaway 2004; Fraser et al 2011).While there is no superior scale of climate vulnerability analysis, recent studies by Yuga et al (2010) and Marshall et al (2014) have confirmed that micro-level analyses have hitherto largely been overlooked in favour of ecosystemscale studies of biophysical vulnerability
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