Abstract
In this study, the sliced functional time series (SFTS) model is applied to the Global, Northern and Southern temperature anomalies. We obtained the combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA. The data are available for Global mean, Northern Hemisphere mean and Southern Hemisphere means (monthly, quarterly and annual) since 1880 to present (updated through March 2019). We analyze the global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address the questions about the reality of global warming. We detected the outliers during the last century not only in global temperature series but also in northern and southern hemisphere series. The forecasts for the next twenty years are obtained using SFTS models. These forecasts are compared with ARIMA, Random Walk with drift and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models. The comparison is made on the basis of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the length of prediction intervals.
Highlights
The global warming causes changes to the Earth’s climate, or long-term weather patterns that vary from place to place
The forecasts for the twenty years are obtained using sliced functional time series (SFTS) models. These forecasts are compared with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Walk with drift and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models
Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling, after 1980
Summary
The global warming causes changes to the Earth’s climate, or long-term weather patterns that vary from place to place. Climate change encompasses rising average temperatures and extreme weather events, shifting wildlife populations and habitats, rising seas and a range of other impacts. All of those changes are emerging as humans continue to add heat-trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, changing the rhythms of climate that all living things have come to rely on. It has become clear that humans have caused most of the past century’s warming by releasing heat-trapping gases called “greenhouse gases” Their levels are higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years and, as a result, glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising and cloud forests are dying
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