Abstract
This study measures various indicators for sustainability in this century for four scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a comparable assessment of the scenarios. We assessed the scenarios using a model of Ramsey-type mainframe with cost models for fuel and non-fuel mineral resources, biomass and foods, and an environmental externality. The existing studies have not assessed these SRES scenarios for sustainability, but only for climate change and its policy under the scenarios using CO2 emissions and shadow prices as indicators. The significant contributions of this paper are an assessment of the scenarios using the measured future paths of various sustainability indicators and revealing that the SRES-B1 scenario is the most favorable from a sustainability perspective. The findings of this study contribute to further empirical analysis of the economics of sustainability and climate policy assessments.
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