Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically look at the effects of uncertainty on risk measures for exchange rates, by focusing on two recent specific periods: the Brexit and the outbreak of the Covid-19. Based on a Fama regression extended with uncertainty measures, we forecast exchange rates in the short run through a quantile regression approach. By fitting a Skewed-Student distribution to the quantile forecasts, we put forward measures of risks for appreciation and depreciation of the expected exchange rates. We point out two interesting results. First, we show that the increase in Brexit-related uncertainty is strongly associated with higher future depreciation risks of the British Pound vs. the Euro, as a mistrust towards the British economy. Second, we find that the Covid-related uncertainty is perceived as a global risk, leading to a flight-to-safety move toward the US Dollar and associated high depreciation risks for emerging currencies.