Measuring complexity in mega construction projects: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey relational analysis

Abstract

PurposeMega construction projects (MCPs), characterized by their vast scale, numerous stakeholders and complex management, often face significant uncertainties and challenges. While existing research has explored the complexity of MCPs, it predominantly focuses on qualitative analysis and lacks systematic quantitative measurement methods. Therefore, this study aims to construct a complexity measurement model for MCPs using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey relational analysis.Design/methodology/approachThis study first constructs a complexity measurement framework through a systematic literature review, covering six dimensions of technical complexity, organizational complexity, goal complexity, environmental complexity, cultural complexity and information complexity and comprising 30 influencing factors. Secondly, a fuzzy evaluation matrix for complexity is constructed using a generalized bell-shaped membership function to effectively handle the fuzziness and uncertainty in the assessment. Subsequently, grey relational analysis is used to calculate the relational degree of each complexity factor, identifying their weights in the overall complexity. Finally, the weighted comprehensive evaluation results of project complexity are derived by combining the fuzzy evaluation results with the grey relational degrees.FindingsTo validate the model’s effectiveness, the 2020 Xi’an Silk Road International Conference Center construction project is used as a case study. The results indicate that the overall complexity level of the project is moderate, with goal complexity being the highest, followed by organizational complexity, environmental complexity, technical complexity, cultural complexity and informational complexity. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the model can accurately reflect the variations across different dimensions of MCP complexity and can be effectively applied in real-world projects.Originality/valueThis study systematically integrates research on MCPs complexity, establishing a multidimensional complexity measurement framework that addresses the limitations of previous studies focusing on partial dimensions. Moreover, the proposed quantitative measurement model combines fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey relational analysis, enhancing the accuracy and objectivity of complexity measurement while minimizing subjective bias. Lastly, the model has broad applicability and can be used in MCPs across different countries and regions, providing a scientific and effective basis for identifying and managing MCP complexity.