Measuring Change in Party Identification in an Election Campaign

Abstract

Partisan change in the 1984 election campaign is analyzed in the continuous monitoring studies by the National Election Studies and Decision/Making/Information. More change was found in partisanship than is suggested in the literature. There was a shift toward the Republican party throughout the campaign, but the change was not unidirectional. Instead, there was curvilinear change moving toward the Democrat party during parts of the campaign and toward the Republicans during other parts of the campaign. The changes in partisan strength correspond to changes in vote intention, suggesting responsiveness to short-term campaign events. All in all, partisanship is more volatile than we have been led to expect.