Abstract
Transport is now the second largest global source of carbon dioxide emissions after energy generation. This paper proposes a collecting, quantifying, predicting and backcasting approach for measuring carbon dioxide emissions to facilitate policy-making in China. The approach comprehensively assesses emissions from transport modes including roadways, railways, waterways and aviation. It combines the advantages of forecasting and backcasting methods to implement target control and strategy formulation. The data, collected over a period of 23 years, are presented as a case study. The results indicate that road vehicles constitute approximately 90% of all transport emissions, that transport emissions will grow continuously based on current policies and desired economic development, and that the control target of decreasing per-unit gross domestic product emissions by 40–45% from 2005 to 2020 is challenging. The results of target backcasting and action checklist auditing indicate that current carbon dioxide emission control actions from the transport sector are insufficient to reverse the deteriorating trend, and more creative technical innovations are urgently needed.
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