Abstract
BackgroundDue to increasing demand and financial constraints, NHS continuing healthcare systems seek to find better ways of forecasting demand and budgeting for care. This paper investigates two areas of concern, namely, how long existing patients stay in service and the number of patients that are likely to be still in care after a period of time.MethodsAn anonymised dataset containing information for all funded admissions to placement and home care in the NHS continuing healthcare system was provided by 26 (out of 31) London primary care trusts. The data related to 11289 patients staying in placement and home care between 1 April 2005 and 31 May 2008 were first analysed. Using a methodology based on length of stay (LoS) modelling, we captured the distribution of LoS of patients to estimate the probability of a patient staying in care over a period of time. Using the estimated probabilities we forecasted the number of patients that are likely to be still in care after a period of time (e.g. monthly).ResultsWe noticed that within the NHS continuing healthcare system there are three main categories of patients. Some patients are discharged after a short stay (few days), some others staying for few months and the third category of patients staying for a long period of time (years). Some variations in proportions of discharge and transition between types of care as well as between care groups (e.g. palliative, functional mental health) were observed. A close agreement of the observed and the expected numbers of patients suggests a good prediction model.ConclusionsThe model was tested for care groups within the NHS continuing healthcare system in London to support Primary Care Trusts in budget planning and improve their responsiveness to meet the increasing demand under limited availability of resources. Its applicability can be extended to other types of care, such as hospital care and re-ablement. Further work will be geared towards updating the dataset and refining the results.
Highlights
Due to increasing demand and financial constraints, National Health Service (NHS) continuing healthcare systems seek to find better ways of forecasting demand and budgeting for care
Patients with continuing care conditions may require healthcare services provided through the NHS (e.g. Primary Care Trusts, NHS Trusts, Mental Health Trusts) and/or social and community care services provided by Local Authorities (LAs)
This paper tackled some of the main concerns of the commissioning process within the NHS continuing healthcare system, which is in line with the National Service Framework to ensure integrated health and social care services for older people, e.g. an evidence based approach to capture the existing system (LoS patterns) and forecasting demand such that the results are robust enough to use it as a means to making critical decisions
Summary
Due to increasing demand and financial constraints, NHS continuing healthcare systems seek to find better ways of forecasting demand and budgeting for care. Many individuals receiving CC have long-term conditions and Continuing care places are generally provided by the National Health Service (NHS) (i.e. publicly-funded healthcare system) and/or Local Authorities (LAs) (i.e. administrative office running a defined area), and are available through various settings (e.g. hospital, care home, hospice, home care). Patients with continuing care conditions may require healthcare services provided through the NHS (e.g. Primary Care Trusts, NHS Trusts, Mental Health Trusts) and/or social and community care services provided by LAs (e.g. borough, county councils). Patients whose main needs relate to their health are those eligible for funded NHS care. Patients who are not eligible for funded NHS care may qualify for a joint package of continuing care, i.e. shared responsibility between the NHS and the LA for providing the care
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
