Measuring and modeling energy resilience

Abstract

Resilience is a hot topic within the international development agenda and Sustainable Development Goals. Nowadays, resilience plays a crucial role in improving the quality of life of vulnerable categories and is designed as a major strategy to face the diverse dimensions and dynamics of vulnerability. Energy results among the most relevant fields of applications of resilience policies, especially when it comes to electricity. As a multidimensional concept, energy resilience policies must relate to the dimensions of sustainability – here considered as the interplay between the economic, social, environmental and governance dimensions. Due to the complexity of the phenomenon, energy resilience can be effectively outlined making use of composite indicators techniques. This paper presents the following new results: i) energy resilience is defined and ranked, strengthening a composite indicator for both OECD and non-OECD countries; the determinants of energy resilience are investigated; ii) an innovation on the construction of the World Bank's Regulatory Indicators on Sustainable Energy is operated. Our exercise makes use of an approach based on interval data to assess the sensitivity of the measure from different specifications. For the same scope, the robustness of the ranks obtained is analyzed through an uncertainty analysis. These choices aim to enhance the soundness and the validity of the composite indicator. The methodology provides a more reliable baseline to validate the results and the conceptual assumptions undertaken. It is found that, according to the diverse theoretical frameworks and methodologies applied, some countries vary considerably both in the pillars that aggregate the variables and within the minima, the centers, and the maxima of the intervals.