MEASURING AND ANALYZING THE FACTORS AFFECTING FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2019

Abstract

Since the last decades of the last century and until now, the Iraqi economy has witnessed many fluctuations and exceptional circumstances, ranging from many wars and international economic sanctions for many years, which had a bad impact on the Iraqi economy, causing a decline in many economic indicators in it, which At the end of the last century, he called on the government to resort to public debt and issue cash without a cover to finance public spending in order to meet even part of the citizens' requirements. These policies caused high inflation rates and the accompanying deterioration in the value of the local currency, as well as chronic deficits. After 2003, with the abolition of economic sanctions on Iraq and the increase in oil revenues, we still did not see any change in the situation of the Iraqi economy. Rather, the rentier nature of the economy increased in depth if we followed any directions of the state in formulating its economic policies aimed at addressing structural imbalances and rebuilding the structure The Iraqi economy again. Therefore, this study aims to study the level of expenditures and revenues and their relationship to financial sustainability. According to these expectations, financial policies are modified, whether by increasing or decreasing public expenditures and revenues. In order to ensure the financial sustainability of the state, the economic, legal and political capacity must be available that enables the government to allow spending programs to grow within certain rates, or to find new sources of revenue or to raise the current rates of revenue. The rapid increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP is one of the most negative factors affecting the continued enjoyment of financial sustainability by countries. For this purpose, the study was divided into three sections, as the first topic reviewed the theoretical framework of financial sustainability in terms of concept, indicators and influencing factors, while the second topic dealt with the analysis of some of the most important economic and financial indicators in the Iraqi economy for the period 1990-2019 and affecting financial sustainability, While the third topic included measuring and analyzing the relationship between the main economic and financial variables affecting financial sustainability in Iraq for the period (1990-2019) within the framework of joint integration by conducting static tests and determining the causal relationship between the variables, and the research concluded with some conclusions and recommendations