Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market

Abstract

Investments in alternative assets, such as art, are influenced by indices that measure price movements in these assets. This paper uses the South African art market to consider how different methodologies influence price estimates in a setting where repeated sales of the same artworks are limited. The focus is on estimating art prices in South Africa, based on a comprehensive database of South African art auctions. A new pseudo-repeat sales method is proposed, to overcome data limitations facing conventional hedonic and repeat sales methods. While the methods suggest similar trends in South African art prices, the levels and volatilities of the returns vary widely, depending on the method used to estimate the price index. The paper also introduces a test for price bubbles that accounts for the measurement error associated with constructed art price indices. Unlike indices based on central tendency methods, regression-based methods indicate mildly explosive prices for oil and watercolour art in South Africa, in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The new test suggests similar conclusions, but indicates shorter periods of explosive price behaviour.