Measures of and Factors in Agricultural Instability

Abstract

Abstract Agricultural instability can be measured in terms of farm output and farm income. It can also be estimated in terms of the fluctuations in such farm input variables as land, labour, farm machines, diesel oil, chemical fertilizers, etc. Through a comparison of total farm output (income) and inputs, it is possible to estimate fluctuations in agricultural productivity (output/income per hectare or per agricultural worker). Farm instability measures may be extended to cover farm-related non-farm economic activities in order to give a broad measurement of rural economic instability. In China, for example, such a comprehensive measure is the gross value of agricultural output (GVAO). This comprises, besides the farming sector proper, forestry, husbandry, fishery, and cottage-type industries which use agricultural raw materials such as cotton, tobacco, and sugar-cane as inputs. Another measure with a scope even broader than that of the GVAO is the so-called gross value of social output (GVSO) introduced in the mid-1980s. This embraces, in addition to the GVAO, building construction, transportation, and trade sectors. Within the rural context, the volume of undertakings in all these sectors fluctuates with the performance of the agricultural sector.