Measurement of water resources carrying capacity in Gugang Town of Central China based on human-water-agriculture framework

Abstract

More research has revealed that central China is one of the most vulnerable areas to a water crisis because of limited and unequally distributed water resources as well as rising water demands. Also, climate change is expected to reduce water resources dramatically, resulting in increased competition among users and severe water shortages for irrigated agriculture. The township, the most basic level of the Chinese government system, urgently needs to compare water allocation based on different management strategies to define the most optimized water management plan. The concept of a “human-water-agriculture” evaluation system was proposed in this study to couple and coordinate human well-being, sustainable water resource use, and agricultural development in Gugang Town, China. Within this framework, twenty-five indicators were chosen from the criterion layers to assess and optimize the carrying capacity of water resources for historical periods and the future year 2030. The results showed that the WRCC was bearable in previous years, except for 2018 when the percentage of water shortage reached 19.5 % because of a sharp reduction in dynamic surface water availability. The static surface water, represented by the water restored in hilly ponds in village and town areas, was discovered to account for up to 17 % of the total amount for the dry year. The WRCC would be overburdened in 2030, with 61.6 % and 18.1 % water-deficient underwater supply at 90 % and 75 % guarantee rates, respectively. The WRCC states that effective optimization of agricultural water allocation for crops to maximize economic benefits with limited water consumption could significantly improve human and agricultural systems. This study investigated a route for studying WRCC in village and town areas, providing theoretical and practical guidelines for local water-adapted development.