Measurement of Potential Victims of Burglary at the Mesoscale: Comparison of Census, Phone Users, and Social Media Data

Abstract

Since the target of burglars is generally the property of the inhabitant, it is crucial to accurately measure potential victims when analyzing burglaries, especially in small areas. Previous studies on burglary are mostly based on large units such as census tracts or communities. One of the difficulties is the measurement of the potential victims of burglary at the mesoscale. We compare the measuring effects of census population, census households, nighttime mobile phone users, and nighttime social media, such as the Tencent regional heatmap (TRH), on potential victims of burglary on 150 m × 150 m grids. Based on the rational choice theory, and controlling for the potentially confounding effects of risks and cost, we show that the TRH performed best, followed by census households and census population, and phone users performed poorly. The best-performing time period for TRH data was 3:00–5:00 am on weekends. These findings could lead to an improved measurement of potential victims of burglary at the mesoscale, and could provide scientific insight for crime prevention.