Abstract
The belt and road initiative (BRI) is a mutual development approach projected by China, which delivers exceptional opportunities for multi-phased communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa, and Europe. It opens ample opportunities for China to easily invest in overseas arable land. Based on the macro data of 119 countries in 2010 and 2016 before and after the BRI, the study comprehensively uses fuzzy C-means clustering and the entropy method to evaluate the potential of arable land investment from four dimensions, which existing literature has not fully grasped. Moreover, the study uses the exploratory spatial data analysis methods (ESDA), kernel density estimation, and trend surface analysis to study the spatial pattern characteristics. The results show that: (i) there are noticeable regional differences in the investment potential of arable land in BRI countries. Asian countries, led by Kazakhstan and Indonesia, and African Unions, led by Ethiopia, South Africa, and Tanzania, generally have higher investment potential. However, South America and European countries are relatively lower. (ii) Resource endowment and production conditions significantly impact overseas arable land investment potential. Asia and Africa have advantages in resource endowment and production conditions, while European countries generally have better economic and political environments. (iii) From the perspective of time evolution, the investment potential in 2016 is generally higher than in 2010, and the negative correlation and dispersion are lower than in 2010. Based on these findings, it is recommended that Chinese enterprises should comprehensively consider the differences in resource endowments and agricultural development levels in various countries, optimize investment layout, and reduce investment risks. Chinese companies should collaborate with host nations on modernization and promote the long-term viability of arable land investments.
Highlights
China’s initiatives to support its rapidly expanding populations (1.398 billion in2019) have long been acknowledged
The study classifies each country’s arable land investment potential into the corresponding categories more accurately by fuzzy C-mean clustering to analyze the distribution of investment potential of each country in a preliminary comparison
The results show that the classification of arable land investment potential in countries along the belt and road initiative (BRI) has not changed much between 2010 and 2016, and only a few countries have changed their potential categories
Summary
China’s initiatives to support its rapidly expanding populations (1.398 billion in2019) have long been acknowledged. Reducing available arable land resources, the decline of arable land quality, and the slow growth rate of grain yield have caused China to rely heavily on imports to ensure national food security [2,5]. In 2020, China imported 115.55 million tons of agricultural products, a 944.8 percent increase from 1996 [6]. The spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has resulted in global grain stocks falling to the lowest level of 611 million tons in 5 years [10,11], and some countries began to ban the export of agricultural products to protect themselves, which putting’s food trade in a disadvantageous position [12]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
