Measurement of ctDNA Tumor Fraction Identifies Informative Negative Liquid Biopsy Results and Informs Value of Tissue Confirmation.

Abstract

Liquid biopsy (LBx) for tumor profiling is increasingly used, but concerns remain regarding negative results. A lack of results may truly reflect tumor genomics, or it may be a false negative that would be clarified by tissue testing. A method of distinguishing between these scenarios could help clarify when follow-on tissue testing is valuable. Here we evaluate circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) tumor fraction (TF), a quantification of ctDNA in LBx samples, for utility in identifying true negative results.We assessed concordance between LBx and tissue-based results, stratified by ctDNA TF, in a real-world genomic data set of paired samples across multiple disease types. We also evaluated the frequency of tissue results identifying driver alterations in lung cancer patients after negative LBx in a real-world clinicogenomic database. The positive percent agreement and negative predictive value between liquid and tissue samples for driver alterations increased from 63% and 66% for all samples to 98% and 97% in samples with ctDNA TF ≥1%. Among 505 lung cancer patients with no targetable driver alterations found by LBx who had subsequent tissue-based profiling, 37% had a driver, all of which had ctDNA TF <1%. Lung cancer patients with negative LBx and ctDNA TF ≥1% are unlikely to have a driver detected on confirmatory tissue testing; such informative negative results may benefit instead from prompt treatment initiation. Conversely, negative LBx with ctDNA TF <1% will commonly have a driver identified by follow-on tissue testing and should be prioritized for reflex testing.