Measurement of City Clusters’ Economic Growth Effects and Analysis of the Influencing Factors

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 202 prefecture-level cities within 14 national-level city clusters in China from 2007 to 2016, we established a dynamic panel model to measure the economic growth effects of city clusters and analyzed the main influencing factors. The results show that: (i) Technology has a significant impact on the economic growth of city clusters; the narrowing development gap between regions can help city clusters produce good economic growth effects; the city clusters, if more agglomerated, can help better utilize factors, and thus promote coordinated regional development. (ii) City clusters with multiple central cities boast a stronger engine of economic growth, and the impacts of factors such as technology and clustering degree on their economic growth are more noticeable. (iii) Geographical factors will also affect city clusters’ economic growth. The economic growth of city clusters in Southern China has been more strongly powered by the factors such as technology, clustering degree and human capital than those in Northern China. From the spatial perspective and by using the threshold panel method, we further explored the mechanisms with which the central cities within a city cluster can influence economic growth depending on their accessibility. The results manifest that the more accessible the central cities within a city cluster are, the stronger role they can play in leading and driving the economic growth of surrounding areas. In the future, it is important to promote the transformation of single-core and dual-core city clusters into multi-core city clusters, and give full play to the role of central cities in leading the development of surrounding areas. It is also necessary to vigorously develop technology and transportation to further facilitate the high-quality growth of city clusters.