Measurement and Spatial Correlations of Green Total Factor Productivities of Chinese Provinces

Abstract

The measurement of green total factor productivity (GTFP) helps to improve environmental evaluation and to supervise environmental protection. This article establishes a system of assessment indicators (AIS) for GTFP and computes the GTFPs of 30 provinces of China from 2000–2019, using the evidence-based measure (EBM) model. Then, the spatial correlation between provincial GTFPs was analyzed and the convergence between them was discussed with spatial panel data. The main results are as follows: China faces a regional difference in GTFP. In general, GTFP descends stepwise from east to west. The 30 Chinese provinces vary significantly in GTFP. The high GTFP provinces are concentrated in the east, and the low GTFP ones mainly exist in the west. According to Global Moran’s I, an indicator of spatial correlation, China’s GTFPs bear prominent features of spatial clustering. The spatial clustering of China’s GTFPs has a significant impact on GTFP convergence. If this spatial effect is considered in traditional convergence models, the GTFP convergence rate can be measured more correctly. The provincial GTFPs show a significant absolute beta convergence, the rate of which reached 0.943% in the research period. Among the various impactors of GTFP, industrial structure and technical innovation significantly enhance GTFP convergence; opening-up and urbanization level significantly suppress GTFP convergence; environmental governance does not significantly affect GTFP convergence. Unlike the previous studies, this paper includes the spatial effect in traditional convergence models to obtain spatial convergence models. The GTFP convergence measured by our spatial convergence models was slower than that measured by the traditional model, suggesting that the spatial effect plays a significant role in GTFP convergence. In addition, this paper proves that the GTFP gap between Chinese provinces has narrowed gradually. This absolute convergence trend of GTFPs provides the key basis for the catch-up effect of the green economy. To improve the convergence of China’s provincial GTFPs, it is important to fully consider the varied effects of factors such as industrial structure, technical innovation, opening-up, urbanization, and environmental governance, and to formulate green development policies according to local conditions.