Measurement and key influencing factors of the economic benefits for China’s photovoltaic power generation: A LCOE-based hybrid model

Abstract

2020 may be redefining China’s photovoltaic power generation (PPG) development. This research is an attempt to extract the key influencing factors and analyze the main driving forces to improve the economic benefits of China’s PPG and thus a lower-cost access to the grid as soon as possible. In this research, the relationship analysis model of PPG economic benefits based on decision lab analysis method (DEMATEL) and interpretative structural model (ISM) is constructed, and thereby accumulated research and development (R&D) funds and accumulated installed capacity are extracted from the set as the key factors. Then, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) model based on the two-factor learning curve is established, and a measurement and calculation on the basis of the assumption of the East China Power Grid is conducted. Recommendations are offered on the grounds of the comparisons in the development status of PPG economic benefits between different regions of China. Finally, through the sensitivity analysis of key influencing factors with LCOE as a variable, it can be found that a 5% more investment in vital influencing factors could produce the average decrease of about 0.0184 yuan/kWh in LCOE.