Measurement and Influencing Factors of Regional Economic Resilience in China

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has underscored the paramount importance of regional economies’ capacities to withstand and adapt to external shocks. Enhancing regional economic resilience and mitigating the adverse impacts on both the economy and society have emerged as critical imperatives for ensuring the sustainable development and transformation of the national economy. This paper employs an improved counterfactual method to measure the economic resilience index across 31 Chinese provinces and cities from 2001 to 2021, coupled with empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model to identify the influencing factors of regional economic resilience. Building upon this foundation, the study delves into the heterogeneous effects of various factors and different degrees of marketization on economic resilience across different regions. Research Findings: (1) There has been a significant improvement in the economic resilience levels of China’s 31 provinces, with differences in economic resilience between regions far exceeding those in economic development levels, indicating substantial internal regional disparities. (2) Factors such as the marketization index, industrial structure, level of informatization, labor force size, labor quality, innovation capacity, and degree of government intervention all impact regional economic resilience and exhibit regional heterogeneity. Policy Recommendations: (1) It is crucial to address regional disparities while formulating regional development strategies and enhancing regional economic resilience. (2) Regions should accelerate market-oriented reforms, promote rational labor mobility, strengthen investment in human capital, foster innovation, and adjust the degree of intervention.