Measurement and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions of China’s Livestock Husbandry in the Post-COVID-19 Era—Based on the Supply-Side Perspective

Abstract

The strategy of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” and the COVID-19 pandemic have become dual challenges for the high-quality development of livestock husbandry. This paper takes the carbon emissions in China’s livestock husbandry as the research object and uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 coefficient to measure the total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of the industry in 2008–2019. Taking the above two elements as explained variables respectively and using the two-way fixed effects model (FE-TW) that controls time and space effects, this paper specifically examines the effects of various factors in the supply side of livestock husbandry on the explained variables, and further examines the role of technology structure and scale structure. According to our measurement, total carbon emissions showed an inverted U-shaped change and carbon intensity declines in an M-shaped curve during the study period. Both total carbon emissions and carbon intensity are composed mainly of CH4 that is primarily generated by grass-fed livestock industries with spatial distribution patterns of “hill” and “cliff”, respectively, while the spatial expression of these two factors is related to the distribution of grain areas. As the test on supply side factors shows, the carbon emissions of livestock husbandry are apparently affected by its land structure, breeding structure, technical level and scale level, but the impact of the level of human capital and mechanization is not as significant as that of technological structure and scale structure. Combining the empirical results and the special background of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper aims to provide more targeted suggestions for livestock husbandry development and carbon reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic period. It also aims to offer a reference for the promotion of green and high-quality development of livestock husbandry and the completion of the task of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”. This study will help policy makers to clarify the goal of reducing carbon emissions in animal husbandry and optimize and improve the corresponding industrial and technological policies.