Measurement and Analysis of the Stability of the Egyptian Agricultural Output Growth Rate

Abstract

The research aims to measure and analyze the stability of the growth rate of the total Egyptian agricultural product through its three components, which are the value of plant production, the value of animal production and the value of fish production, and to determine the effects of fluctuations in agricultural production on economic growth in the Egyptian agricultural sector, in addition to estimate the impact of fluctuations in those Components besides inflation and agricultural employment on the growth rate of the Egyptian total agricultural product during the period 1987-2020. The research used the instability coefficient proposed by Cuddy-Della Valle (1978), simple correlation, simple regression, inverse roots of characteristic polynomial, cointegration test, and the fully modified ordinary OLS (FMOLS). The most important results of the FMOLS indicated that all the signs are logical and that the regression coefficients are significant. and the growth rate of the total value of agricultural output during the study period is affected by fluctuations in the growth rate of the value of plant, animal and fish production, annual inflation rate, agricultural employment, fluctuations in the growth rate of the total value of Egyptian agricultural output with a delay of one period. The volatility in the growth rate of the value of plant, animal and fish production have a significant negative impact on the growth rate of the agricultural sector, while the inflation rate and agricultural employment have a significant a positive impact on the growth rate of the agricultural. Keywords: Volatility in the value of agricultural output, Cuddy-Della Valle index, Growth rate, Inflation, Unit Root, Cointegration, FMOLS. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/13-24-04 Publication date: December 31 st 2022