Measurable residual disease (MRD) dynamics in multiple myeloma and the influence of clonal diversity analyzed by artificial intelligence

Abstract

Minimal residual disease (MRD) assessment is a known surrogate marker for survival in multiple myeloma (MM). Here, we present a single institution’s experience assessing MRD by NGS of Ig genes and the long-term impact of depth of response as well as clonal diversity on the clinical outcome of a large population of MM patients; 482 MM patients at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) diagnosed from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. MRD assessment was performed by NGS. PFS curves were plotted by the Kaplan–Meier method. In the newly diagnosed group, 119 of 304, achieved MRD negativity at the level of 10−6 at least once. These patients had a prolonged PFS versus patients who were persistently MRD positive at different levels (p > 0.0001). In the relapsed disease group, 64 of 178 achieved MRD negativity at 10−6, and PFS was prolonged versus patients who remained MRD positive (p = 0.03). Three categories of MRD dynamics were defined by artificial intelligence: (A) patients with ≥3 consistently MRD negative samples, (B) patients with continuously declining but detectable clones, and (C) patients with either increasing or a stable number of clones. Groups A and B had a more prolonged PFS than group C (p < 10−7). Patients who were MRD positive and had not yet relapsed had a higher clonal diversity than those patients who were MRD positive and had relapsed. MRD dynamics can accurately predict disease evolution and drive clinical decision-making. Clonal Diversity could complement MRD assessment in the prediction of outcomes in MM.