Mean Versus Variability: Disentangling Stress Effects on Alcohol Lapses Among Individuals in the First Year of Alcohol Use Disorder Recovery

Abstract

Although stress is a well-known predictor of alcohol use lapses among individuals seeking recovery from alcohol use disorder (AUD), most research has relied on retrospective self-report using conventional questionnaires that explore stress effects at the level of the mean. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) overcomes many of the shortcomings of questionnaire-based, retrospective self-report by using real-time, in-the-environment evaluations for the acquisition of ecologically valid data that can also capture stress variability. The present investigation used EMA to disentangle stress effects on alcohol lapses among individuals in the first year of an AUD recovery attempt by exploring associations between mean-level stress, stress variability, and subsequent alcohol use. Participants (N = 42) completed 6 days of EMA monitoring and were then followed up 90 days later to assess alcohol use. Putative associations were explored using hierarchical regression controlling for demographic factors and pre-baseline alcohol use, with percentage days abstinent from alcohol at follow-up as the outcome variable. An interaction effect was observed such that the combination of high mean stress level and high stress variability was associated with the lowest percentage of days abstinent. For those with high mean stress levels, this relationship was attenuated as stress variability decreased. The findings support previous research linking stress to alcohol use lapses; however, these results indicate that the stress/alcohol use relationship is more nuanced than previously described. Our findings suggest that stress variability should also be considered in clinical contexts when assessing risk conferred by mean-level stress.