Abstract
AbstractA novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between −17 and +66% of the reference value (−37 to +25% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500–1200 BC and AD 755–890, and the wettest intervals were 2500–2460 BC, 130–40 BC, AD 350–490, and AD 1770–1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of ≥200 yr did not exceed 15 mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks.
Highlights
Precipitation, a major forcing of the hydrological cycle, is key to understanding past environments
This paper focuses on the late Holocene in the Levant– eastern Mediterranean, a region with a rich history of human societies
We suggest that the interpretation of insignificant precipitation trends as “no change” should be made more cautiously. Variance and their trends of Kfar Giladi annual precipitation were calculated from the Dead Sea level curve over the past 4500 yr
Summary
Precipitation, a major forcing of the hydrological cycle, is key to understanding past environments. Direct relationships or transfer functions from proxies to precipitation are hard to establish, and past conditions are often only qualitatively characterized. Qualitative terms such as drier/wetter conditions are adopted. Interannual variability and random clustering of dry and wet years can produce seemingly “natural” fluctuations that must be distinguished from true changes in precipitation regime or even climate change. An example of this is the discussion by Roe (2011) and Anderson et al (2014) on glacier responses to climate change and their variability
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