Mean State of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Three Generations of CMIP Models

Abstract

Abstract Progress and persistent biases in the simulation of the stratospheric polar vortex from three generations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) are assessed. On average, the stratospheric cold bias is largest in CMIP3, but is improved in CMIP5 and CMIP6. The climatological ridge in the stratosphere over the North Pacific is underestimated persistently across CMIPs. Four parameters of the stratospheric polar vortex are evaluated among models and among CMIPs, and some common biases are identified for most models, including the too-large size of the vortex periphery, overstrong strength, too-small aspect ratio of the vortex shape, and too-westward displaced a vortex centroid. Intermodel spread in some parameters is highly correlated with the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in northern tropical oceans. Namely, a cold SST bias in the northern tropical Pacific is associated with a too-strong and too-large polar vortex, and a cold SST bias in the northern tropical Atlantic seems to be related to the westward bias of the vortex centroid. The implications of biases in the mean state of the vortex for stratospheric events such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are also identified in this study. Models with a climatological vortex that is too strong, has too low an aspect ratio, or has a westward-biased centroid usually produce fewer SSWs, whereas ones with weaker strength, high aspect ratio, and eastward-biased centroid produce more. Based on the multimodel mean, the biases of all parameters have improved across three generations of CMIPs, although persistent biases in some individual models exist across CMIPs. Intermodel relationships between the polar vortex and SST highlights the important role of the SST simulation for the stratosphere.