Mean Aversion and Reversion of Asset Returns

Abstract

This study investigates autocorrelations in returns of six relatively safe and risky U.S. financial assets for one to ten years. Treasury bills and bonds display mean aversion in most periods whereas small company stocks exhibit mean reversion in all periods. The safest asset shows the strongest mean aversion and the riskiest asset has the strongest mean reversion. Large company stocks switch between mean aversion and reversion. Mean aversion of bond returns generally reflects mean aversion in Treasury bill returns. Mean reversion of stock returns is due to their negative relationships with prior risk-free returns and risk premiums in most periods.