MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention

Luis Santos,Vasco Lopes,Cecília Baptista

doi:10.3390/f13030408

Abstract

Countries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climate-change reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design.

Highlights

Certain biogeographic regions are historically prone to wildfires; the Mediterranean in Europe, Fynbos and Savannah in Africa, Malee in Australia, Matorral in Chile, and Chaparral in California, are among the most well-known biomes for common wildfire occurrence [1]
The current study aims to create dynamic monthly risk maps, designed to optimize monitoring strategies as part of the integrated dynamic process involved in fire prevention
The results obtained for the study region shown as potential ignition risk maps using the InVEST habitat risk assessment model (HRA) model within the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk strategy (MDIR) are illustrated on Figure 3

Summary

Introduction

Certain biogeographic regions are historically prone to wildfires; the Mediterranean in Europe, Fynbos and Savannah in Africa, Malee in Australia, Matorral in Chile, and Chaparral in California, are among the most well-known biomes for common wildfire occurrence [1]. Despite ignition and spread tendencies, hot and dry climate ecosystems require fire: species have evolved to resist wildfires, and in some extreme cases, fire is a mandatory cue for species development [6]. In Europe, countries such as Sweden, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia, among others, are experiencing increased burnt area, while wildfire hotspot countries, such as Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy, and France have experienced unusually severe fires, claiming hundreds of lives and resulting in serious economic loss [7,8]. Many argue that this is an indicator of increasing wildfire activity, resulting in destructive megafires under the current climate change scenario [8,9]

Methods

Results

Conclusion