MDCT findings predicting post-operative residual tumor and survival in patients with pancreatic cancer.

Abstract

To predict residual tumor (R) classification and overall survival (OS) on preoperative MDCT in patients who underwent first-line surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA). Three hundred sixteen patients with PDA who underwent MDCT and first-line surgery were included. Patients were divided into a test (n = 216) and a validation group (n = 100). The R classification was categorized into R0 (no residual tumor) and R1/R2 (microscopic/macroscopic residual tumor). We assessed the correlation between the MDCT findings and the R classification. For survival analysis, we used the Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazard model to determine the prognostic factors for OS. Validation of the prediction models for the R classification and OS was performed using C statistics and calibration plot. Peritumoral fat stranding (odds ratio (OR) 3.826), suspicious distant metastasis (OR 2.916), portal vein involvement (OR 2.795), and tumor size (OR 1.045) were independent predictors for residual tumor (p < .05). On survival analysis, common hepatic artery involvement (hazard ratio (HR) 5.656), R1/R2 stage (HR 2.476), and N1 stage (HR 1.745) were predictors of poor OS (p < .05). C statistics for prediction models for R classification and OS were 0.816 and 0.662, respectively. Calibration plots showed good predictive performance in a high probability of the R1/R2 stage or poor OS. Preoperative MDCT is useful for predicting the R classification using the tumor size, peritumoral fat stranding, portal vein involvement, and suspicious distant metastasis, as well as for anticipating poor OS using the N1 stage, common hepatic artery involvement, and R1/R2 stage in patients with PDA. • Thorough assessment of the involvement of common hepatic artery or portal vein and peritumoral fat stranding is warranted for predicting prognosis in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. • Not only encasement but also abutment of common hepatic artery or portal vein by tumor predicts poor prognosis after upfront surgery. • If residual tumor or poor overall survival is anticipated on preoperative MDCT, neoadjuvant treatment can be performed.