Abstract

Ecosystem balance is an important factor that affects healthy and sustainable urban development. The traditional cellular automata (CA) model considers only a few ecological factors, however, the MCR model can account for ecological factors. In previous studies, few ecological factors were added to the CA model. Thus, the minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) model is combined with the CA and Markov models for the simulation of urban expansion. To verify the reliability of the method, the Wuhan metropolitan area was selected as a representative urban area, and its expansion in the past and future was simulated. Firstly, seven influential factors were selected from the perspective of location theory. The transformation rules of the comprehensive resistance surface followed by the modified CA–Markov model were constructed on the basis of the MCR model. The expansion of the Wuhan metropolitan area in 2013 was simulated on the basis of the 1996 and 2006 maps of land-use status, and the kappa coefficient was used as an index to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method. Then, the expansion of the Wuhan metropolitan area in 2020 was simulated. Finally, the simulation results obtained with and without the MCR model were compared and analysed from the macro- and micro levels. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the two models differed for ecological regions, such as woodlands and water bodies. The similarities between the regions that were overestimated and underestimated by the MCR-modified CA–Markov model and non-MCR model may be attributed to solution of the land-use transfer matrix with the Markov model. The accuracy of the MCR-modified CA–Markov model for predicting forests, water and other ecological regions was higher than that of the Markov model. Therefore, the proposed MCR-modified CA–Markov model has potential applications in environmentally-conscious urban expansion.

Highlights

  • The expansion of existing cities has become an unavoidable problem with the acceleration of urbanisation

  • The results of the minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) and non-MCR models are compared on the macro- and micro levels

  • The kappa coefficient for the MCR-modified cellular automata (CA)–Markov model is 0.7639 and that for the original model is 0.7428. These results show that the accuracy of simulation results provided by the MCR-modified CA–Markov model is higher

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Summary

Introduction

The expansion of existing cities has become an unavoidable problem with the acceleration of urbanisation. Urban expansion causes ecological problems, such as the greenhouse effect [4], land degradation [5], and biodiversity reduction [6]. These problems seriously affect human life by destroying the balance of the original ecosystem [7]. The CA model can simulate urban expansion well, the MCR model can account for ecological factors. The existing research on the MCR model has focused on its use in the evaluation of ecological suitability and has not combined it with the CA model for the simulation of urban expansion. Our work provides an approach for maximising land resources to protect the environment and a reference for decision-making in government land planning

Overall Process
MCR Model
Multiple-Factor Fixed Weight
Logistic Regression Model Construction
Experimental Area
Spatial Pattern of Land-Use Change
Evaluation Based on Logistic Regression Model
Construction of Resistance Surface with the MCR Model
Suitability Evaluation Based on the MCR Model
Prediction and Verification of the MCR-Modified CA–Markov Model
Comparative Analysis
Macroanalysis
Microanalysis
Simulation of Urban Expansion in 2020
Conclusions
Full Text
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