Abstract
Spontaneous combustion is a complicated process and its control function is a partial differential equation (PDE) of heat conduction. To solve the problem of spontaneous combustion, we should specify some parameters first, such as the heat source, thermal conductivity, convective heat transfer coefficient, and so on. Some parameters can be got easily and accurately, but some are not. So there could be a great gap between the result of numerical simulation and the result of experiment. For this inverse problem, we can estimate these parameters with the MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method. Then, we could get more accuracy and reliable numerical result.
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