Mayoral Party Identity and Social Distancing Behaviors in Brazil

Abstract

Does the political affiliation of local policymakers determine the citizens' compliance to social distancing behaviors? We provide causal estimates of the effect of political party affiliation of municipal mayors on regional differences in engaging in preventive behaviors in the context of Brazil. We employ a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close mayoral elections in 2016 to examine the effects of having a mayor from one of three political parties that President Jair Bolsonaro is closely associated with, by combining Facebook mobility data that tracks regional movement relative to February levels with electoral data from the 2016 mayoral municipal elections. Our methodology compares municipalities that are similar along a wide array of predetermined and observable correlates of the spread of the coronavirus, and where the incumbent mayor was selected as-if randomly. We find that residents of Bolsonaro-affiliated municipalities exhibit 60% smaller relative declines in regional movement, and are 13% more likely to cross regional boundaries over the months of March, April, and May. The findings hold for each of the three political parties, for each of the three months since the onset of the pandemic, and after controlling for anti-lockdown measures of March 15 in Brazil. We also provide evidence consistent with the notion that Bolsonaro-affiliated municipalities systematically under-report COVID-related cases and deaths on any given day, relative to comparable municipalities within close geographical proximity but with an incumbent mayor from a different political party.