Abstract

ABSTRACT The recent episodes of forest fires in Brazil and Australia of 2019 are tragic reminders of the hazards of forest fire. Globally incidents of forest fire events are on the rise due to human encroachment into the wilderness and climate change. Sikkim with a forest cover of more than 47%, suffers seasonal instances of frequent forest fire during the dry winter months. To address this issue, a GIS-aided and MaxEnt machine learning-based forest fire prediction map has been prepared using a forest fire inventory database and maps of environmental features. The study indicates that amongst the environmental features, climatic conditions and proximity to roads are the major determinants of forest fire. Model validation criteria like ROC curve, correlation coefficient, and Cohen's Kappa show a good predictive ability (AUC = 0.95, COR = 0.81, κ = 0.78). The outcomes of this study in the form of a forest fire prediction map can aid the stakeholders of the forest in taking informed mitigation measures.

Highlights

  • The incidents of forest fire in Sikkim Himalaya take a peak during the dry period of the year from November to March due to the accumulation of dry biomass over the forest floor

  • Studies conducted in the Huron–Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA suggested that population density and development were the major determinants of forest fire occurrences (Massada et al 2013)

  • MaxEnt-based forest fire prediction map of Sikkim Himalaya indicated that road network and population density were mainly accountable for forest fire incidents

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Summary

Introduction

The incidents of forest fire in Sikkim Himalaya take a peak during the dry period of the year from November to March due to the accumulation of dry biomass over the forest floor. These incidents may occur by natural causes like lightning as Sikkim falls under the northeast region of India, which is considered a high lightening zone. Anthropogenic causes of forest fire in Sikkim include intentional and accidental factors. Bonfires by the cattle herders, burning of the forest floor to deter wild animals entering the agrarian land, logging induced decrease in forest canopy cover are the intentional causes of forest fire in Sikkim. Sparks from the uphill moving vehicles, electric transformers located in forested areas, use of traditional torch called Rankoo, throwing away of live bidi and cigarettes butts are the accidental causes of forest fire (S. Sharma, Joshi, and Chhetri 2014)

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