Maximum entropy application in predicting the vulnerability of land and forest fires in South Sumatra Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Land and forest fire disasters impact humans, biodiversity, and the environment. Identification and distribution of land and forest fire vulnerabilities are essential so that disaster mitigation and management can be fast, precise, and prioritized. The research objectives are to identify land and forest fires that occurred in South Sumatra Province in the 2017–2021 period, to identify environmental and anthropogenic variables that influence the occurrence of land and forest fires, and to map the distribution of land and forest fire vulnerability in South Sumatra Province. Land and forest fires use MODIS Hotspots data for 2017–2021. Prediction land and forest fire vulnerability using maximum entropy (Maxent) with predictive variables are climates, topography, soil, vegetation, and anthropogenic. The accuracy of the maxent model uses the AUC value. The number of hotspots with a confidence level of 70% in South Sumatra Province from the 2017–2021 period was 6,778 hotspots, with the highest number of hotspots occurring in 2019 being 5,826 hotspots. Maximum entropy (Maxent) can predict land and forest fires well in South Sumatra with AUC values of 0.807 (training data) and 0.801 (test data). Soil organic carbon, mean temperature of driest quarter, slope, and distance from rivers are essential variables influencing land and forest fires. The areas of land and forest fires vulnerability in South Sumatra Province are not vulnerable at 35,104 km2 (41.28%), low vulnerability at 26,394 km2 (31.04%), medium vulnerability at 15,413 km2 (18.13%), and high vulnerability at 8,119 km2 (9.55%). The districts/cities in South Sumatra Province with the most expansive areas of medium and high vulnerability are Ogan Komering Ilir, Musi Banyuasin, and Banyuasin districts. Data on land and forest fire vulnerability distribution in South Sumatra can be a reference for all parties in land and forest fire mitigation and prevention activities.