Maximum Entropy and Ecology

Abstract

Abstract A goal of every science is comprehensive theory that is predictive, realistic, and parsimonious. Is such theory possible in ecology? The sheer complexity, historical contingency, and scale-dependence of organisms and their interactions with their surroundings suggest to many a negative answer. This book answers yes. Rather than building and combining mechanistic models of ecosystems, the approach here is grounded in information theory and the logic of inference. Paralleling the derivation of thermodynamics from the maximum entropy principle, the state variable theory of ecology developed in the book predicts realistic forms for all metrics of ecology that describe patterns in the distribution, abundance, and energetics of species across multiple spatial scales. Part I is foundational, discussing the nature of theory, the relationship of ecology to other sciences, and the concept of the logic of inference. Parts II and III, respectively, present the fundamentals of macroecology and of maximum information entropy from the ground up. Part IV integrates the fundamentals, leading to the derivation and testing of the predictions of the maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE). Part V widens the perspective by showing how METE can help clarify several major issues in conservation biology, placing METE in context with other theories, and pointing readers along avenues for future research.