Maximizing the potential of protected areas for biodiversity conservation, climate refuge and carbon storage in the face of climate change: A case study of Southwest China

Abstract

A forward-looking approach that incorporates biodiversity and nature-based solutions is needed for climate change adaptation. In this research, we identified conservation priorities in 2050 for Southwest China (SWC) based on habitat suitability, climate stability, and carbon storage capacity and presented the results for 12 SSP-GCMs combinations. Our findings indicate that the mean temperature of the SWC may increase significantly, with the largest predicted rise being of 2.78 °C and the smallest being 1.36 °C. The carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in 89.03 % of the SWC's protected areas (PAs) is forecast to increase by 2050. Among the 237 PAs, habitat suitability is expected to increase in 158 PAs. The climate change intensity in all PAs is expected to remain at a rate of the weakest 15 % in the entire SWC. Based on our research, areas with high habitat suitability, climate stability, and carbon storage capacity at the same time in 2050 would cover 23.80 % of the SWC, with an area of about 550,000 km2. The representation of the SWC's existing PAs network reveals that the PAs' overlap with conservation hotspots is only 13.71 %, with just 12.69 % of these hotspots being adequately protected. Thus we propose a stepwise post-2020 conservation plan for the SWC from now through to the mid-point of the century. By 2030, 25 % of the SWC is expected to be protected, with the target increasing to 33 % and 43 % by 2040 and 2050, respectively. To achieve these goals, significant efforts are required like developing a dynamic future planning mechanisms.