Maximizing ozone control by spatial sensitivity-oriented mitigation strategy in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Abstract

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) has long been plagued by severe O3 pollution, particularly during the autumn. A regional O3 pollution episode influenced by the Western Pacific Subtropical High in September 2021 was characterized by near-surface O3 escalation due to strong photochemical reactions within the planetary boundary layer. This event was targeted to develop effective control strategies through investigation of precursor control type and scope based on the high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) and integrated source apportionment method (ISAM) of CMAQ. Generally, the majority of areas (67.0 %) were under NOx-limited regime, which should strengthen afternoon NOx control inferred by positive convex O3 responses. However, high emission and heavily polluted areas located in central PRD were under VOC-limited regime (11.6 %) or mixed regime (15.0 %). The remaining areas (6.4 %) were under NOx-titration or insensitive conditions. Regarding source apportionment, Guangdong province contributed 32.3 %–58.4 % to MDA8 O3 of PRD, especially higher proportion (>50 %) to central areas. Overall, local-focused NOx/VOC emission reductions had limited effects on O3 mitigation for receptor cities compared to regional-cooperative regulation. When region-wide VOC emission reduction was implemented, MDA8 O3 in VOC-limited grids exhibited the largest declines (2.3 %–4.1 %, 3.9– 7.0 μg·m−3). However, unified NOx control contributed to increasing MDA8 O3 in VOC-limited grids (most stations located for air quality evaluation) whereas decreased MDA8 O3 by 2.1 %– 5.7 %, 3.0– 8.2 μg·m−3 in large-scale NOx-limited grids. The sensitivity-oriented regional control avoided O3 rebound and achieved the greatest decline of 3.4 %– 5.0 %, 5.7– 8.4 μg·m−3 in VOC-limited grids; additionally, time-refined dynamic aggressive NOx control decreased peak O3 by an extra 1.2– 6 μg·m−3, both of which facilitate the regulation for the forecasting O3 episodes. These findings suggest that in heavily polluted environments, the enhancement of O3 regulation benefits requires meticulous, coordinated, and dynamic NOx and VOC controls spanning the entire region based on high-resolution analysis of heterogeneous O3-NOx-VOC sensitivity. Furthermore, emission reduction gains should be more reasonably reflected through increasing in-situ observations covering multi-sensitivity regions.