Maximizing modal shift in bicycle network design

Abstract

We propose a mathematical programming model aimed to design a bicycle network which maximizes modal shift from a given potential demand. Urban planners face the problem of promoting sustainable mobility practices, including the use of bicycle for daily trips. One of the main factors which influence modal shift toward the bicycle is the existence of specialized infrastructure, which includes the network, i.e., a set of dedicated and interconnected lanes which can be used in combination with the existing street network for traveling from different origins to different destinations. The bicycle network can be built over different street sections using different infrastructure technologies, e.g., quality of pavement, which impact on the perceived travel cost and have different construction cost. In this context, the better is the network built from the point of view of travel cost, the more people currently using a different transport mode are willing to shift toward the bicycle mode. Our proposed model takes a street network, both travel and construction costs on every segment, an origin-destination matrix of potential bicycle trips and a given construction budget, and determines the segments where bicycle lanes should be built and the technology of infrastructure on each segment, so as to maximize the modal shift from the potential demand to the bicycle mode. The methodology is applied to a real case related to the city of Montevideo, Uruguay, for which we conduct sensitivity analysis and comparison with the current system.