基于红外相机技术和MaxEnt模型的黑麂(Muntiacus crinifrons)活动节律分析和潜在适生区预测

Abstract

黑麂是中国特有的濒危鹿科动物，分布于浙闽赣皖四省的部分山地丘陵。为明确黑麂的活动节律及适宜环境温度，探讨四省区域的潜在分布区情况，2018年1月至2019年1月，在遂昌牛头山林场内布设57台Ltlacorn红外相机，对黑麂及其同域物种进行研究。监测期间红外相机共有效监测到黑麂26次，相对多度指数为1.79。根据监测到黑麂位点与文献记录，共确定黑麂出现位点16个。根据黑麂栖息地特征选择6个生境因子为预测背景，利用MaxEnt模型预测黑麂在浙闽赣皖四省的潜在适生区。模型预测结果准确性较高（AUC=0.976）。结果表明：（1）黑麂年活动高峰季节为夏季，日活动高峰为7：00-9：00和16：00-18：00；（2）温度是影响黑麂活动的重要因素，其活动最适宜温度范围为18-28℃；（3）黑麂潜在适生区总面积约为25980.62 km²，占四省总面积的4.87%；（4）黑麂潜在适生区分为浙赣皖潜在分布区、浙赣潜在分布区、洞宫山潜在分布区和括苍山潜在分布区4个区域。建议（1）加强潜在分布区内种群资源的调查；（2）识别并建立各适宜生境之间的生态廊道；（3）建立黑麂保护网络。;The black muntjac (Muntiacus crinifrons) is an endangered mountain Cervidae endemic in China. Its distribution is limited to hilly and mountainous regions in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Anhui Provinces. A study was carried out to understand the effects of activity rhythm, suitable environmental temperature, and distribution of potentially adaptive areas. Fifty-seven LtlAcorn infrared-triggered camera-traps were installed in six sample areas (Xijianling, Daxikeng, Alpine wetland, Jiupanli, Zhufengxia, and Taohualing) of Suichang Niutou Mountain, Zhejiang Province, China to monitor black muntjac and other wildlife from January 2018 to January 2019. A total of 13,655 camera-days of data were collected, including 89176 photos and videos during the 12 months of data collection using the infrared cameras. Twenty-six black muntjac were counted, and the calculated relative abundance index (RAI) was 1.79. The highest quantitative value for relative qbundance index (RAI) was 3.85 in Taohualing and the lowest one was 1.27 in Jiupanli. The MaxEnt model was used to obtain the current potentially suitable habitat based on six environmental variables and 16 current distribution sites. The accuracy of the model was verified by a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The results showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.976, suggesting a perfect predictive power of the model. The statistical results indicated that the peak of seasonal activity was in summer, and the two peaks of daily activity appeared from 07:00 to 09:00, and 16:00 to 18:00. Temperature is one of the most critical environmental factors influencing the activity of black muntjac; the range of preferred temperature was from 18℃ to 28℃. Acicular-leaved forest was the primary food source for black muntjac, and the altitude of preferred habitat was from 1000 m to 1200 m. We use the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat of black muntjac, and the results show that there were three mainly geographical areas in China. The area of unsuitable habitat was approximate 508019.38 km², which accounted for 95.13% of the total area. The area of suitable habitat was approximate 25980.62 km², which accounted for 4.87% of the total area. It was divided into highly suitable habitat (3700.73 km², 0.69% of the total area), medium suitable habitat (7552.51 km², 1.41% of the total area), and low suitable habitat (14727.39 km², 2.76% of the total area). The results of Jackknife test indicated that altitude, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important environmental factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of black muntjac, while isothermality and mean temperature of the driest quarter had low influence. Two strategies on the conservation and management of black muntjac population were proposed:strengthen the investigation of the potential population resources of black muntjac and establish a migration corridor and protection network among suitable habitats of black muntjac.